Upset Watch

Our Upset Potential Index (UPI) analyzes situational factors, statistical edges, and market signals to identify games where underdogs have the best chance to pull off an upset.

Games This Week

4

Upset Alerts

1

Upset Watch

2

Week

18

Upset Alerts

(UPI 70+)
BUF@KC
Tue, Feb 3 • 3:05 AM
KC -3.5 • BUF +3.5
78
UPI
Upset Alert
Contributing Factors
+22Rest Disadvantage
+18Bills Recent Form
+15Line Movement

Upset Watch

(UPI 50-69)
GB@DET
Wed, Feb 4 • 3:05 AM
DET -7 • GB +7
62
UPI
Upset Watch
Contributing Factors
+15Divisional Revenge
+12Injuries
CIN@BAL
Thu, Feb 5 • 3:05 AM
BAL -6.5 • CIN +6.5
55
UPI
Upset Watch
Contributing Factors
+10Divisional Game
+12Burrow Factor

Standard

(UPI <50)
SEA@SF
Wed, Feb 4 • 3:05 AM
SF -10 • SEA +10
45
UPI
Standard

How UPI is Calculated

40%Situational Factors
  • • Rest advantage/disadvantage
  • • Travel distance
  • • Lookahead/letdown spots
  • • Divisional revenge
35%Statistical Edge
  • • DVOA differential
  • • Recent form (last 5)
  • • ATS performance
  • • Key matchup advantages
25%Market Signals
  • • Line movement
  • • Public betting %
  • • Sharp money indicators
  • • Closing line value