Track Record
Full transparency on our predictions. Every Upset Alert and Upset Watch we've issued, tracked against actual outcomes. No hiding from the misses.
Upset Alerts
(UPI 70+)54.8%
Hit Rate
23/42
Record
+26.8%
vs Baseline
Baseline
Upset Watch
(UPI 50-69)40.4%
Hit Rate
36/89
Record
+12.4%
vs Baseline
Baseline
What Does This Mean?
Baseline: Historically, underdogs win outright about 28% of the time in the NFL. This is our benchmark.
Edge vs Baseline: How much better (or worse) our predictions perform compared to randomly picking underdogs.
Upset Alert: Our highest conviction picks (UPI 70+). We issue these sparingly when multiple factors align.
Upset Watch: Elevated upset potential (UPI 50-69). Worth monitoring but not our strongest signals.
Recent Predictions
| Game | Type | UPI | Result | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF @ KC(27-24) | Alert | 78 | Upset | ✓ |
| DAL @ PHI(17-31) | Alert | 72 | Chalk | ✗ |
| SEA @ SF(24-20) | Watch | 65 | Upset | ✓ |
| CIN @ BAL(21-35) | Watch | 58 | Chalk | ✗ |
| GB @ DET(31-27) | Alert | 75 | Upset | ✓ |
| NYJ @ MIA(20-17) | Watch | 52 | Upset | ✓ |